Thursday, September 9, 2010

Reforming The Reporter

The reform season is in the air and reason is clear, as people look for loopholes to cover and introspect the mistakes of the past to shield the future against a possible re-run of the crisis. Leading the charge and clarion of change is the media. But the media itself has blood on its hands. For long it has been shifting the blame on to the financial system but it has overlooked it own role in the crisis.

I am of the firm belief that it is the bias, profit making and gutless news reporting of today’s media firms is responsible for the various cycles of boom and depression we see in the economy. Like a columnist in the Financial Times put it in his blog, 
“If the banks make the soap water, the media blows the air into the bubble.”
The media and the industry share a symbiotic relationship, with both feeding of each others produce. What is startling is how the average investor watching TV is kept out of this relationship. This shows how the model is fundamentally skewed and biased. For the products and brand image, companies use the media. On the same hand, for bulking up their shows and references, sneaks, previews and hot news the media uses the companies.

Playing with emotions
Financial historians have often claimed human behaviour to be exemplified in the history of finance and more visibly on financial markets. Growing volumes of research in the field of behavioral finance show how investors and markets are being driven more by instincts and emotions, and less by calculative investing techniques. Booms and busts are products, at roots, of our emotional volatility

And the perfect medium to play with the markets via which to play with emotions and judgments of investors is the medium itself.
Let me give an example, say the DOW fell 300 pts in one day. One way to report; “The DOW has fallen 300 pts…these were the companies…these were the figures…blah blah”. And the other way of reporting is; “BLACK FRIDAY has just come...the DOW is very low…show stories of people losing lifetime savings…and ten honchos with big company name banners behind them, talking about their own evaluations and opinions of the gloomy day” (what irritates me is that those 10 honchos would have still earned money and would prospect to earn more after influencing the audience and in a way the market as well.)

It is important to keep in mind that large chunk of investors are not professionals or portfolio managers. So they have a huge dependence on the media for advice and suggestion, but like they say little knowledge is dangerous; so is the case with financial advisory. What the average Joe does not understand is that recommendations on investments are subject to personal circumstances and cannot be taken or applied on just watching a half an hour programme on TV.

Hiding it under the rug
Although my argument of reforming the reporter comes at a time when columnists and editorials are critically reviewing each and every jigsaw to this puzzle, but are shy to see their own mistakes. There very few writers who saw this coming in one form or the other, but were discouraged and disdained by peers.

Even today very few articles can be found in the newspapers and internet on how media has played its part. Thus I have tried to identify the issues and flawed processes and if there is any solution possible.
Stay tuned in for more on this…

Deciphering the Fiscal Policy

The biggest fiscal expenditure programme in the history of the world is underway. Sweeping across 4 continents and pulling down political barriers, this swift, responsive and coordinated effort by governments around the world have led us to diverge away from what could have been the ‘greatest’ depression. Internationally coordinated efforts of governments have defended us from fallacies of the past; having taken lessens from Dr Keynes whose medicine of rapid and expansive fiscal expenditure has indeed worked again.

Even after the death of Keynes his legacy continues, along with it the debate surrounding his bequest. Many economists still doubt till date his policy of high government expenditure and especially in light of today’s already inflated fiscal deficits. Keynes had suggested that the government should take charge of the expenditure in times of collapse and forget the increasing deficit, which will take care on its own, once the economy is back on track.

The situation which government’s face today is indeed unprecedented. 
The success of the fiscal stimulus in the past is a motivation to spend, but the danger of over burdening itself with debt is more real and feasible this time around. 
Rather then bringing in investments, it might just scare away private investment by increasing interest rates and a subsequent lower sovereign credit rating. Currently it is expected that the stimulus package would run the economy and sustain markets till the end of next year. Governments are prudent to early withdrawal calls, with the Japanese crisis still in fresh memory.

Here is an idea of how much governments need to watch out next year as well, in the recovery stage.

Country
Fiscal Deficit (as % of GDP)
USA
9.70%
UK
13.30%
Japan
10.50%
India
8.40%
China
4.30%
Brazil
1.30%
Russia
5%
          Source: IMF Estimates for 2010

Thus it would make a good case to explain that why on earth, governments are willing to take so much of risk and are pumping in so much of money and if it would ever reach the desired targets.

For me an easy way to understand this would be to break down the decision making involving fiscal stimulus and focussing on different regions and nations to derive more sense from their decisions. Thus in simple lay man terms, I breakdown to what are the options available to the governments, why the fiscal stimulus has been so dominant this time, why some economists are sceptical about it and the dilemma of timing of withdrawal of taxpayers support.

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

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